trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -4.7% | -13.8% | 50% | 50% | -26.1% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -4.7% | -13.8% | 50% | 50% | -26.1% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -4.7% | -13.8% | 50% | 50% | -26.1% |
| all | 23 | +72.0% | +55.6% | 52% | 52% | -21.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +55.6% | 52% | -21.0% |
| 10% | +40.7% | 48% | -28.6% |
| 15% | +27.1% | 39% | -35.5% |
| 20% | +14.7% | 30% | -41.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 19¢ | 16¢ | $150 | $127 | −$23 (-15%) |
| Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Yes | 38¢ | 8¢ | $11 | $2 | −$9 (-78%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 16 | $39 | −$38 | -98% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $153 | −$150 | -98% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $102 | −$100 | -98% |
| Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? | Jun 13 | $8 | +$12 | +141% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $100 | +$84 | +84% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $102 | +$96 | +94% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $142 | +$62 | +43% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on December 4? | Dec 04 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on December 3? | Dec 03 | $50 | +$18 | +37% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on November 30? | Nov 30 | $100 | −$40 | -40% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on November 27? | Nov 27 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on November 26? | Nov 26 | $50 | +$31 | +63% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on November 24? | Nov 24 | $50 | +$17 | +34% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on November 23? | Nov 23 | $50 | +$50 | +100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on November 10? | Nov 10 | $50 | +$53 | +106% |
| Cardano ETF in 2025? | Nov 09 | $10 | +$9 | +87% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 8? | Nov 08 | $199 | +$40 | +20% |
| Will Base launch a token in 2025? | Nov 08 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? | Nov 08 | $11 | +$3 | +27% |
| Ethereum all time high by October 31? | Oct 25 | $23 | −$23 | -100% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | Oct 24 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? | Oct 24 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |