Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf70a…a372 other 25 markets active 18h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$143 (-9%) realized −$111 · open −$32
Gross ROI / mkt +72% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +56% what you keep after slip
Net edge+56%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$188
7 days−$135
14 days−$135
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$50
other 43% −$85
politics 9% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+55.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.7% -13.8% 50% 50% -26.1%
≤30d 8 -4.7% -13.8% 50% 50% -26.1%
≤90d 8 -4.7% -13.8% 50% 50% -26.1%
all 23 +72.0% +55.6% 52% 52% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +55.6% 52% -21.0%
10% +40.7% 48% -28.6%
15% +27.1% 39% -35.5%
20% +14.7% 30% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +72% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +176% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$55 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage235d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $150 $127 −$23 (-15%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 38¢ $11 $2 −$9 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $8 +$12 +141%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$84 +84%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$96 +94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $142 +$62 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 4? Dec 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 3? Dec 03 $50 +$18 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 30? Nov 30 $100 −$40 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 27? Nov 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 26? Nov 26 $50 +$31 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 24? Nov 24 $50 +$17 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 23? Nov 23 $50 +$50 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 10? Nov 10 $50 +$53 +106%
Cardano ETF in 2025? Nov 09 $10 +$9 +87%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 8? Nov 08 $199 +$40 +20%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Nov 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? Nov 08 $11 +$3 +27%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Oct 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Oct 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Oct 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $39 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 44h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 11¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 90¢ $184 3d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes $8 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 64¢ $198 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $204 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $42 5d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 19¢ $155 36d
Ethereum Up or Down on December 4? BUY Down 11¢ $50 194d
Ethereum Up or Down on December 3? SELL Down 20¢ $68 195d
Ethereum Up or Down on December 3? BUY Down 15¢ $50 195d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 30? BUY Down 22¢ $50 198d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 30? SELL Down 48¢ $60 198d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 30? BUY Down 40¢ $50 198d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 27? BUY Down $50 201d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 26? SELL Down 52¢ $0 202d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 26? SELL Down 52¢ $43 202d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 26? SELL Down 52¢ $39 202d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 26? BUY Down 32¢ $50 202d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 24? SELL Down 30¢ $67 204d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 24? BUY Down 22¢ $50 204d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 23? SELL Down 30¢ $82 205d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 23? SELL Down 30¢ $0 205d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.33 · official $129.33 (match) · 85 history records