Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf708…692c other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$12
world 27% −$5
sports 11% $0
politics 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -1.1% -10.5% 55% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 12 -1.2% -10.6% 50% 0% -10.7%
all 34 +0.7% -8.9% 53% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 6% -9.0%
10% -17.6% 3% -17.7%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage487d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 81¢ 82¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $33 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $65 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1 $0 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $33 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $23 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $68 +$3 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $40 −$8 -21%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $80 −$2 -2%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 07 $2 $0 -12%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top Champions League scorer? Jun 01 $3 $0 +14%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +5%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Apr 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $64 $0 -0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 11 $22 $0 +1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 11 $64 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 10 $61 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in April? Apr 08 $64 $0 +0%
Will Tom Kim win The 2025 Masters? Apr 07 $64 $0 +0%
Will Auburn win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $50 +$13 +25%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 31 $47 $0 -0%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Mar 31 $49 −$2 -5%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $49 $0 +0%
Will 50-100k federal employees accept the buyout? Mar 20 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? Mar 01 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Feb 23 $98 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $33 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $5 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $5 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $33 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $31 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $33 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $20 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $12 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $19 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $13 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 5d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $1 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $8 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $26 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.96 · official $33.83 (match) · 115 history records