Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:39:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf706…8344 other 249 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 238L
Whale WR10%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$29
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$39
sports 22% −$22
politics 8% −$5
culture 8% −$9
crypto 6% −$6
economics 6% −$6
world 5% −$4
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 249 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 10% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)10%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)249 / 249
History coverage135d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 249 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $336 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $255 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $441 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $569 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $184 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $159 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $344 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $158 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $410 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $127 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $361 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $311 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $793 −$2 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $631 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $343 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 11 $423 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $213 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $228 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $236 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $237 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $305 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $64 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $277 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $712 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $450 −$2 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $353 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $164 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $417 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $58 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $58 3h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 4h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 6h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 7h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 9h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 10h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 11h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 17h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 18h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 23h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 24h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 31h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 32h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 33h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 35h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 36h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1386 history records