Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf705…7186 other 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,115 (+1%) realized +$1,115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%36W / 125L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$1,194per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$182
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$158
politics 34% −$87
sports 14% +$1,228
economics 4% −$5
culture 3% −$9
world 3% +$101
crypto 2% +$6
tech 0% +$2
finance 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 39 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 84 +1.0% -8.6% 10% 5% -8.8%
all 161 -0.5% -10.0% 22% 11% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 11% -9.0%
10% -18.6% 11% -17.7%
15% -26.5% 10% -25.7%
20% -33.7% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$1,602) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$10 · ×6.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses36 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)161 / 161
History coverage158d
Avg bet$1,194
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 161 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $3,528 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $681 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $3,798 −$5 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $5,899 −$7 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $588 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $238 +$1 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $1,909 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $646 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,140 −$4 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,942 −$2 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 06 $76 −$76 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $1,565 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,904 −$5 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $206 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $721 +$1 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $995 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $2,142 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,625 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $3,041 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $50 +$57 +114%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,515 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,495 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $2,494 −$4 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 22 $78 +$55 +70%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,371 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $3,045 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 20 $1,625 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $3,175 −$5 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,606 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $3,119 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,609 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $1,624 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $3,983 −$5 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $1,651 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,623 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $4,109 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $663 1h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $664 3h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $765 4h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $766 6h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $680 46h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $681 2d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $818 2d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $819 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $827 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $828 2d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $587 3d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $588 3d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $447 4d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $448 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 100¢ $238 5d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $374 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $375 7d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $482 7d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $483 8d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $645 8d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $646 8d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $568 9d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $568 9d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $903 9d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $905 9d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $590 9d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $591 9d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $706 9d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $706 10d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $438 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 485 history records