Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F7 0xf704…bed4 sports 949 markets active 1h ago coverage 217d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 217d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$37,183 (-9%) realized −$37,306 · open +$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%450W / 498L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$413per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$582est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$209
7 days+$198
14 days−$563
30 days−$434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$52,429
other 8% +$922
crypto 7% −$3,394
politics 0% −$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -25.4% -32.5% 47% 43% -2.5%
≤30d 144 -5.9% -14.8% 45% 42% -13.8%
≤90d 682 -17.5% -25.3% 37% 32% -52.2%
all 948 -4.3% -13.4% 47% 41% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 41% -22.3%
10% -21.7% 37% -29.8%
15% -29.3% 31% -36.5%
20% -36.2% 26% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$288 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$573
Realized−$37,306
Unrealized+$123
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses450 / 498
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$582
Open positions1
Markets (closed)948 / 949
History coverage217d ⚠
Avg bet$413
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 948 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 64¢ 81¢ $450 $573 +$123 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 234 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $304 +$151 +50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $183 +$121 +66%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $65 −$64 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $176 −$173 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $67 −$65 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $256 +$18 +7%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $130 +$126 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$29 -96%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $29 +$21 +73%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $106 +$94 +89%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $92 +$50 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $101 +$28 +27%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $25 −$24 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$42 +137%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $209 +$76 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$21 +70%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $185 +$39 +21%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $79 −$21 -27%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $51 −$11 -22%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $194 +$23 +12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $93 +$101 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 09 $160 +$198 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 09 $83 +$77 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 08 $86 −$83 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 08 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 08 $13 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 08 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 08 $52 +$44 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 08 $15 −$8 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$15 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $31 +$43 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$36 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $66 −$64 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $44 −$44 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $455 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $456 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $304 19h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $304 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 52¢ $183 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $65 32h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $176 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 30¢ $31 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 2d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Katarzyna Kawa 100¢ $274 2d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Katarzyna Kawa 93¢ $256 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $255 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $130 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $31 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 51¢ $20 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $51 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 57¢ $29 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $101 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $200 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 52¢ $106 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 91¢ $91 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 61¢ $92 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 23¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $573.38 · official $573.45 (match) · 3500 history records