Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:50:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F7 0xf700…f601 crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$117 (+61%) realized +$209 · open −$92

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +117% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +89% what you keep after slip

Net edge+89%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$48per market

Trades / day3.5pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+96.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+117.4%	+96.7%	100%	100%	+95.2%
≤30d	2	+117.4%	+96.7%	100%	100%	+95.2%
≤90d	2	+117.4%	+96.7%	100%	100%	+95.2%
all	2	+117.4%	+96.7%	100%	100%	+95.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+96.7%	100%	+95.2%
10%	+77.8%	100%	+76.5%
15%	+60.7%	100%	+59.5%
20%	+44.9%	100%	+43.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +116% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +117% · $-wt +116% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$57 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$209

Unrealized−$92

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$48

Trades / day3.5

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	35¢	0¢	$42	$0	−$42 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	46¢	0¢	$50	$0	−$50 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Jun 16	$46	+$67	+146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Jun 15	$52	+$46	+89%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$44	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$46	13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$52	28h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.11 (match) · 8 history records