Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:59:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6fe…b5d1 world 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,029 (-32%) realized −$9,910 · open −$119
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate39%26W / 41L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$406per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$3,969now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$3,817
other 33% −$3,136
tech 10% −$3,137
finance 1% +$33
sports 0% −$4
crypto 0% +$8
economics 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -6.7%
≤90d 42 -9.7% -18.3% 45% 26% -10.0%
all 67 -25.7% -32.8% 39% 21% -44.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 21% -44.0%
10% -39.2% 10% -49.4%
15% -45.1% 3% -54.2%
20% -50.5% 1% -58.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$590) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -44% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$255 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$3,969
Realized−$9,910
Unrealized−$119
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses26 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)67 / 77
History coverage108d
Avg bet$406
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $1,068 $927 −$141 (-13%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $870 $925 +$55 (+6%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $871 $911 +$40 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $585 $585 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $304 $220 −$84 (-28%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $190 $206 +$17 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $93 $89 −$4 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $76 $70 −$6 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $27 $35 +$8 (+30%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Yes 61¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $371 −$19 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $330 −$16 -5%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 21 $1,058 +$89 +8%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? May 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $219 −$219 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $1,735 +$83 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 07 $590 −$20 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $1,001 +$10 +1%
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? May 01 $12 −$6 -48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $232 +$29 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $361 +$4 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $18 −$5 -29%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $12 −$2 -14%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $14 −$4 -31%
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? Apr 10 $174 −$35 -20%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 09 $9 −$1 -7%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 09 $7 +$2 +26%
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? Apr 09 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Apr 09 $8 +$3 +41%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $13 −$5 -43%
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by April 30? Apr 09 $17 +$5 +33%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Apr 09 $18 −$6 -31%
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by April 30? Apr 09 $17 +$6 +33%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? Apr 09 $14 $0 -2%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30? Apr 09 $21 −$5 -24%
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $29 −$8 -27%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $267 +$33 +12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $739 +$81 +11%
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by March 31? Apr 01 $1 $0 +33%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31? Apr 01 $45 +$6 +13%
Will Russia enter Borova by March 31? Apr 01 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by March 31? Apr 01 $47 +$8 +17%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31? Apr 01 $27 −$19 -71%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? Mar 27 $20 −$6 -32%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026? Mar 25 $119 −$21 -18%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? Mar 24 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31? Mar 23 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30? Mar 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30? Mar 23 $16 +$9 +59%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 2 Mar 17 $94 −$90 -96%
Will NCAA March Madness Live be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store Mar 17 $790 −$760 -96%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31? Mar 17 $104 +$34 +33%
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by March 31? Mar 17 $339 +$8 +2%
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20? Mar 17 $790 −$770 -98%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 17 $221 +$47 +21%
Will "Gas Price" or "Gas Station" be said during the next episode of t Mar 17 $790 −$665 -84%
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 2 Mar 17 $790 −$756 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 2m
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 1h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 1h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 1h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 3h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 3h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 3h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 4h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 4h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 5h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 5h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 6h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 6h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 7h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $100 9h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 28h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 28h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 29h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 29h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 29h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 29h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 29h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 30h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 30h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 31h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 32h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 32h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $4 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,969.48 · official $3,969.48 (match) · 1296 history records