Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:01:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F6 0xf6fd…02f4 world 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-12%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$22
other 41% $0
finance 5% $0
crypto 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.1% -12.3% 67% 0% -25.7%
≤30d 3 -3.1% -12.3% 67% 0% -25.7%
≤90d 4 -27.3% -34.2% 50% 0% -28.3%
all 4 -27.3% -34.2% 50% 0% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 0% -28.3%
10% -40.5% 0% -35.2%
15% -46.3% 0% -41.4%
20% -51.5% 0% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$13 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage58d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $83 $83 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $106 −$22 -21%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 23? Apr 21 $5 −$4 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $85 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 49¢ $84 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $106 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY No 92¢ $5 57d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? BUY No 97¢ $10 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 23? BUY No 21¢ $5 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.68 · official $82.68 (match) · 8 history records