Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:09:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6f7…e0da weather 638 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17,217 (+132%) realized +$17,415 · open −$198
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate20%145W / 586L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day79.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$2,656
other 1% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 282 -59.4% -63.3% 11% 11% -55.2%
≤30d 602 -11.5% -20.0% 19% 18% -18.2%
≤90d 731 +2.1% -7.6% 20% 19% -12.8%
all 731 +2.1% -7.6% 20% 19% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 19% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 19% -21.2%
15% -24.5% 18% -28.8%
20% -31.9% 17% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$16 · ×3.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized+$17,415
Unrealized−$198
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses145 / 586
Open positions17
Markets (closed)731 / 638
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day79.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 731 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 21? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $101 $89 −$12 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Yes 35¢ 74¢ $35 $74 +$39 (+111%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $56 $63 +$7 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $30 $28 −$3 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? Yes 21¢ 8¢ $69 $25 −$44 (-64%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 21? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $27 $16 −$11 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 21? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21? Yes 11¢ 100¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+809%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $107 $1 −$106 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 21? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 21? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 21? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 483 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 3? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 6? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 7? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 25? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 8? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 27 Jun 21 $20 +$13 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 25? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on May 1? Jun 21 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 2? Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 3? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 3? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 27? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 30? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 26? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 9? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on May 5? Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 7? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 7? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 6? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 44-45°F on May 6? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 29? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 7? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on May 4? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 29? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 7? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 2? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 4? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on May 5? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on May 2? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 25? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C or higher on May Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on April 29? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 30? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 5? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on April 30? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 10? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 9? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 6? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 24? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 40°C or higher on April 25? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 4? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on April 26? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on April 25? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 24? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 30? Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 2? Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $4 4m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 26m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 32m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 33m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $0 34m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $5 34m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $4 34m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 34m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 34m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $0 34m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $19 34m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 34m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 37m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 41m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 42m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 44m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 54m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.17 · official $317.17 (match) · 3500 history records