Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:42:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6f6…0e74 crypto 834 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,387 (+10%) realized +$5,526 · open −$1,139
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%408W / 548L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day91.8pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$1,375
other 24% −$5,037
politics 13% −$1,592
sports 12% −$1,791
world 3% −$945
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 314 -66.6% -69.8% 16% 12% -75.9%
≤30d 869 -19.8% -27.5% 42% 34% -41.9%
≤90d 956 -17.4% -25.3% 43% 35% -39.4%
all 956 -17.4% -25.3% 43% 35% -39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 35% -39.4%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 28% -45.2%
15% -39.0% 24% -50.5%
20% -45.0% 20% -55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$44 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$5,526
Unrealized−$1,139
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses408 / 548
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions60
Markets (closed)956 / 834
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day91.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 60 History 956 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No 40¢ 38¢ $46 $44 −$2 (-4%)
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? No 46¢ 36¢ $37 $29 −$8 (-21%)
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 80¢ 88¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+9%)
Will Morocco finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 17¢ 3¢ $75 $13 −$62 (-82%)
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-03 House seat? No 14¢ 12¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-14%)
Will Scotland finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 91¢ 98¢ $11 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $17 $11 −$5 (-32%)
Will Nassourdine Imavov be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 91¢ 100¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? No 41¢ 4¢ $68 $6 −$62 (-91%)
Will Ivory Coast finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 91¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 56¢ 24¢ $10 $4 −$5 (-56%)
Will Chris Coons be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Delaware? No 6¢ 3¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-48%)
Will Carter Hanson be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $104 $2 −$102 (-98%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat? No 50¢ 45¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Brazil finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $75 $2 −$72 (-97%)
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 17¢ 36¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+113%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $104 $1 −$103 (-99%)
Will Christopher Oldfield be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-69%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? No 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 36¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes 3¢ 19¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+455%)
Will Tiffany Rodgers be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 440 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $606 −$606 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $165 −$165 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $89 −$89 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 30, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $130 −$130 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $7 2m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $13 2m
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in BUY No 89¢ $4 28m
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY No 24¢ $1 28m
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? SELL Yes 71¢ $14 29m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 29m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $7 29m
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY No 84¢ $17 29m
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in BUY No 88¢ $18 29m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 12¢ $12 56m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $53 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $36 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $59 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $87 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 55¢ $55 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 86¢ $86 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 59¢ $59 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 56¢ $57 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 92¢ $55 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $30 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $79 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 92¢ $87 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 92¢ $34 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $75 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 92¢ $92 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $70 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 85¢ $85 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 44¢ $44 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $88 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.43 · official $200.24 (match) · 3500 history records