Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:02:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F6 0xf6f4…e4cb sports 476 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,182 (-4%) realized −$1,229 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%267W / 201L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$303est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$497now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$252
7 days−$1,179
14 days−$1,484
30 days−$1,438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$1,221
other 18% −$44
politics 2% −$11
crypto 1% −$57
world 0% −$58
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -10.9% -19.4% 45% 43% -26.8%
≤30d 241 -4.6% -13.7% 52% 49% -15.1%
≤90d 468 -0.9% -10.4% 57% 49% -13.6%
all 468 -0.9% -10.4% 57% 49% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 49% -13.6%
10% -19.0% 45% -21.9%
15% -26.8% 38% -29.4%
20% -34.0% 29% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$43 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$497
Realized−$1,229
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses267 / 201
Est. fees paid−$303
Open positions8
Markets (closed)468 / 476
History coverage68d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 468 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tagger Anastasia Zakharova 47¢ 100¢ $75 $159 +$84 (+113%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 62¢ 62¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Yes 32¢ 32¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 43¢ 40¢ $75 $71 −$4 (-6%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 56¢ 92¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+63%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey James Duckworth 30¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $76 +$49 +65%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu Jun 19 $76 −$75 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $76 −$75 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $77 −$76 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $76 +$77 +101%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $152 −$76 -50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $76 +$44 +58%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $75 −$49 -66%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $76 +$80 +105%
ITF Luque: Caira Delfina Vega Guidino vs Agustina Daniela Duarte Jun 17 $75 +$75 +100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 −$75 -99%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $75 −$74 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $76 −$75 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $76 +$83 +109%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $76 +$111 +146%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $76 +$36 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $76 +$83 +109%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $76 +$102 +134%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $102 +$109 +107%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $76 −$75 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $75 +$16 +21%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $210 −$185 -88%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $76 +$23 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $184 −$183 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $76 +$53 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $76 −$75 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $76 −$75 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $76 +$60 +79%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $80 +$42 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $111 −$101 -91%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $76 +$87 +114%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $76 +$38 +51%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $77 +$6 +7%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $84 +$100 +119%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $687 −$233 -34%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $76 −$75 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $947 −$530 -56%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $63 +$13 +20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $669 −$3 -0%
Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Ma Jun 13 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $76 −$75 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $76 −$9 -11%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $76 −$5 -7%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $378 −$75 -20%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $76 −$75 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $76 +$87 +114%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $76 −$75 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey BUY James Duckworth 30¢ $35 10m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey BUY James Duckworth 30¢ $10 11m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag BUY Anastasia Zakharova 47¢ $76 17m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $76 42m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $77 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $76 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $76 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $76 20h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu BUY Jeline Vandromme 40¢ $76 23h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $76 39h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $77 39h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 50¢ $72 47h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $76 47h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $76 47h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 52¢ $76 47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $76 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $9 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $88 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $3 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $76 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 17¢ $26 2d
ITF Luque: Caira Delfina Vega Guidino vs Agustina Daniela Duarte BUY Caira Delfina Vega Guidino 50¢ $65 2d
ITF Luque: Caira Delfina Vega Guidino vs Agustina Daniela Duarte BUY Caira Delfina Vega Guidino 50¢ $9 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $76 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $75 3d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Adrian Mannarino 1¢ $2 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $76 3d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 47¢ $75 3d
ITF Luque: Caira Delfina Vega Guidino vs Agustina Daniela Duarte BUY Caira Delfina Vega Guidino 50¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $497.21 · official $499.39 (match) · 996 history records