Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6f3…913d crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-8%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -9.2% -17.8% 18% 18% -16.6%
≤30d 11 -9.2% -17.8% 18% 18% -16.6%
≤90d 11 -9.2% -17.8% 18% 18% -16.6%
all 11 -9.2% -17.8% 18% 18% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 18% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 18% -24.6%
15% -32.9% 18% -31.9%
20% -39.5% 9% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 47m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 51m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.88 · official $5.88 (match) · 35 history records