Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6f3…d8f4 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$26 (+12%) realized +$28 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$11
other 18% −$16
sports 7% +$40
world 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -8.0% -16.7% 50% 40% -2.1%
≤30d 10 -8.0% -16.7% 50% 40% -2.1%
≤90d 10 -8.0% -16.7% 50% 40% -2.1%
all 10 -8.0% -16.7% 50% 40% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 40% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 30% -11.5%
15% -32.0% 30% -20.0%
20% -38.7% 30% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)10 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$40 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 25h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 25h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.16 · official $41.16 (match) · 34 history records