Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:43:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F6 0xf6f2…b422 sports 331 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,611 (-2%) realized −$5,730 · open −$2,881
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%166W / 164L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,628per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$7,940est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 93d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$18,588
other 4% +$5,398
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -30.8% -37.4% 34% 34% -16.9%
≤30d 70 -17.5% -25.3% 44% 43% -8.7%
≤90d 325 -1.8% -11.1% 51% 49% -8.6%
all 330 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 48% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 48% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 45% -18.1%
15% -28.5% 40% -26.0%
20% -35.5% 32% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,822) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,014 vs −$1,089 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$5,730
Unrealized−$2,881
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses166 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$7,940
Open positions1
Markets (closed)330 / 331
History coverage93d
Avg bet$1,628
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 53¢ 0¢ $2,884 $3 −$2,881 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $986 −$52 -5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $385 −$375 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $640 −$625 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $177 −$175 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $380 −$370 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $644 −$630 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $1,825 +$1,523 +84%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,979 +$1,700 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $6,710 −$2,045 -30%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $971 −$950 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $844 −$835 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,977 +$1,863 +47%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $287 −$274 -96%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $536 +$1,274 +238%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $1,002 +$888 +89%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $485 −$475 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $987 +$1,266 +128%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $317 −$310 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,014 −$939 -93%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $408 −$400 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,015 −$613 -60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $583 −$583 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,009 +$440 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,745 +$443 +25%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,379 +$356 +26%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 12 $1,015 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,009 +$440 +44%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $1,002 +$888 +89%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $503 +$550 +109%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $283 +$224 +79%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3,828 +$2,243 +59%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $311 +$54 +17%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $366 −$360 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,247 +$298 +24%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,517 −$1,227 -81%
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 08 $1,017 −$807 -79%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $780 −$741 -95%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $202 −$98 -49%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $101 −$13 -13%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) Jun 07 $993 +$754 +76%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $463 −$458 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $314 +$130 +42%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $978 +$333 +34%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $375 −$375 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 06 $1,002 +$888 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $2,002 47m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $10 59m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 54¢ $912 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 45¢ $933 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $986 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $385 4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $640 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 53¢ $177 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $380 7h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $644 7h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 54¢ $1,825 31h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,679 31h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,979 35h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $1,982 35h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 46¢ $941 35h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 26¢ $940 35h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $1,740 35h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $1,743 35h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $7 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $4,022 39h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $971 40h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 63¢ $844 41h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $5,841 41h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 67¢ $3,977 42h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 52¢ $1,014 42h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 68¢ $1,010 43h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $287 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $409 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Atlanta Dream 53¢ $343 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.72 · official $2.72 (match) · 1902 history records