Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F6 0xf6f1…7da3 sports 1146 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$51,467 (+17%) realized +$51,421 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate89%1098W / 134L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day60.7pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$1,097
politics 30% +$74
sports 17% +$3,602
other 9% +$4,507
weather 2% +$125
world 1% +$1,678
tech 0% +$25
finance 0% +$93
economics 0% +$24
culture 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 333 -12.0% -20.3% 64% 5% -16.6%
≤30d 1061 +14.0% +3.2% 88% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 1232 +16.6% +5.5% 89% 5% -9.2%
all 1232 +16.6% +5.5% 89% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.5% 5% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -4.6% 4% -17.9%
15% -13.8% 3% -25.8%
20% -22.3% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$83 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$1,403
Realized+$51,421
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1098 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions28
Markets (closed)1232 / 1146
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$271
Trades / day60.7
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 1232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $730 $737 +$7 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $106 $107 +$1 (+1%)
Janvier/Uzhylovsky vs. Forcano/Vervoort: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Down 56¢ 100¢ $48 $86 +$38 (+80%)
Spread: Notts County FC (-2.5) Notts County FC 99¢ 100¢ $76 $77 +$0 (+0%)
BPL: Chattogram Challengers vs Durbar Rajshahi (Game 1) Durbar Rajshahi 1¢ 50¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+4900%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 2.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Notts County FC 3 - 0 Salford City FC? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 5.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Set 1 Winner: Hijikata vs Paul Hijikata 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 4.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 3.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Salford City FC (-2.5) Notts County FC 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Notts County FC 0 - 1 Salford City FC? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Göztepe SK vs. Çaykur Rizespor end in a draw? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+350%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-91%)
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 1¢ 23¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2238%)
Will 5+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 1¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+648%)
Exact Score: IK Start 2 - 3 Vålerenga Fotball? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Exact Score: IK Start 1 - 2 Vålerenga Fotball? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Exact Score: IK Start 1 - 1 Vålerenga Fotball? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Exact Score: IK Start 0 - 1 Vålerenga Fotball? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 131 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Göztepe SK win on 2026-01-19? Jun 17 $17 +$488 +2816%
Levante UD vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Markéta Vondroušová win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belinda Bencic win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Emma Raducanu win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Beatriz Haddad Maia win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jelena Ostapenko win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Coventry City achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 17? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Michael Mmoh Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: IK Start 3 - 2 Vålerenga Fotball? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bianca Andreescu win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 17? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: IK Start 0 - 2 Vålerenga Fotball? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Giulio Zeppier Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-02-24? Jun 17 $632 −$632 -100%
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $206 −$206 -100%
1. FC Magdeburg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $181 −$181 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Sweeny vs. Wu: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $973 −$1,443 -148%
Will Clara Tauson win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. SSG Landers Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on March 25? Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Yulia Putintseva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: IK Start 3 - 3 Vålerenga Fotball? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Linda Nosková win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Naomi Osaka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Karolina Muchova Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Karolína Plíšková win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paula Badosa win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Rocket League: Gentle Mates vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 6 Winner Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Abilene Christian Wildcats vs. Utah Tech Trailblazers: O/U 153.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Boston Legacy FC vs. Orlando Pride: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
UC Davis Aggies vs. Cal State Fullerton Titans: O/U 140.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will "Deep Water" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Shymkent 2: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Dali Blanch Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Fernando Mendoza be drafted in the top 3 picks of the 2026 NFL Dr Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
San Jose State Spartans vs. New Mexico Lobos: O/U 161.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Anna Kalinskaya win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Veronika Kudermetova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Karolína Muchová win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,070 −$1,070 -100%
USD/CAD Up or Down on March 3? Jun 17 $355 −$355 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Janvier/Uzhylovsky vs. Forcano/Vervoort: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $99 4m
Chong/Kempen vs. Aoyama/Chan: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $99 40m
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $730 55m
Krawietz/Puetz vs. Galloway/Peers: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 99¢ $99 56m
Set Handicap: Added/Hands (-1.5) vs Buldorini/Elamin (+1.5) BUY Added/Hands 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 1h
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 1h
Sueoka/Tajima vs. Agostini/Johansson: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 99¢ $54 2h
Set 2 Winner: Waldner vs Wessels BUY Wessels 99¢ $76 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $64 8h
Los Angeles Dodgers winning after 5 innings? BUY No 14¢ $4 8h
Aguilar vs. Almeida: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $34 9h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $7 9h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $76 11h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $76 11h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $76 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $2 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $55 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $22 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $88 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $93 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $76 13h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 99¢ $76 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $10 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $25 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $67 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $10 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $76 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $22 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $4 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,403.00 · official $1,392.50 (match) · 3500 history records