Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:50:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6ee…981c weather 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$119 (-1%) realized −$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%110W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$119
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 62 -1.5% -10.9% 98% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 107 -0.8% -10.2% 99% 0% -10.9%
all 114 -1.2% -10.6% 96% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -10.9%
10% -19.2% 0% -19.4%
15% -27.0% 0% -27.2%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$32 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses110 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage120d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $225 $226 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 24 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 19? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $192 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $134 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $95 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $158 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $222 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $159 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 8? Jun 09 $222 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $220 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $158 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 5? Jun 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 5? Jun 05 $160 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 5? Jun 05 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $124 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 04 $163 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $166 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $162 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 1? Jun 01 $138 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $225 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $224 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $17 27h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $96 27h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $224 32h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $33 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $92 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $136 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $223 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $37 5d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $192 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $224 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $7 8d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $93 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $134 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $32 9d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $95 10d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $30 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $101 10d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $101 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $125 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $69 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $3 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $149 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $141 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.51 · official $225.51 (match) · 234 history records