Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:47:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6ed…1bee politics 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%10W / 81L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$732per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$8
14 days−$15
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$46
other 35% −$26
sports 5% +$9
economics 4% −$3
world 4% +$6
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 31 +5.2% -4.8% 13% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 91 +0.9% -8.7% 11% 7% -9.6%
all 91 +0.9% -8.7% 11% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 7% -9.6%
10% -17.5% 7% -18.3%
15% -25.5% 5% -26.2%
20% -32.8% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$830) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$2 · ×5.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses10 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage77d
Avg bet$732
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $351 $351 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,026 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,592 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,059 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $817 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 04 $52 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 04 $374 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $588 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2,033 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $2,352 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $758 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 21 $52 +$43 +83%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $577 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 20 $35 +$29 +83%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $2,202 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $656 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $728 −$1 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 19 $34 +$25 +73%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $806 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 15 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $716 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 13 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 13 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 13 $714 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $351 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $316 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $316 5h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $721 3d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $722 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $765 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $766 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $878 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $879 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $677 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $678 6d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $829 6d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $830 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $924 10d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $925 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $808 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $810 11d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $775 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $776 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $750 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $751 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $815 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $817 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $610 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $611 13d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $587 17d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $588 17d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $405 20d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $405 20d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $502 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.79 · official $350.79 (match) · 252 history records