Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:39:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6ec…8774 crypto 210 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%108W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day63.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$29
other 4% +$2
sports 3% −$30
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 209 +1.8% -7.9% 52% 49% -9.7%
≤30d 209 +1.8% -7.9% 52% 49% -9.7%
≤90d 209 +1.8% -7.9% 52% 49% -9.7%
all 209 +1.8% -7.9% 52% 49% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 49% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 40% -18.4%
15% -24.7% 32% -26.2%
20% -32.1% 27% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses108 / 101
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)209 / 210
History coverage5d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day63.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 45¢ 57¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$13 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$4 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +215%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.45 · official $2.28 (match) · 377 history records