Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:12:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6e9…9756 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$151 (-11%) realized +$29 · open −$180
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$309
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-55.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -51.1% -55.7% 33% 33% -23.2%
≤30d 3 -51.1% -55.7% 33% 33% -23.2%
≤90d 3 -51.1% -55.7% 33% 33% -23.2%
all 3 -51.1% -55.7% 33% 33% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.7% 33% -23.2%
10% -60.0% 33% -30.6%
15% -63.8% 33% -37.3%
20% -67.4% 0% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$225 vs −$177 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$180
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $288 $282 −$6 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $36 $33 −$3 (-8%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $172 $1 −$171 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $181 −$179 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $495 +$225 +46%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $180 −$175 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $294 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $181 8h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $173 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $720 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $278 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $216 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $37 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $180 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.35 · official $315.35 (match) · 11 history records