Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:15:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6e6…e0bb other 179 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,132 (-7%) realized −$5,132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate46%83W / 96L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$389per market
Trades / day47.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$2,529
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +0.2% -9.4% 43% 37% -10.4%
≤30d 53 -10.5% -19.0% 40% 26% -19.2%
≤90d 179 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 22% -12.8%
all 179 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 22% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 22% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 11% -21.1%
15% -33.9% 9% -28.7%
20% -40.4% 7% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$568) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$77 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses83 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)179 / 179
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$389
Trades / day47.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 179 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $882 −$12 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $143 +$30 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$2 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $34 +$20 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $384 −$102 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $278 −$32 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $237 −$84 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $244 −$106 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $286 −$95 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $130 −$42 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $209 −$17 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $187 +$70 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $24 +$13 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $42 −$8 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $25 −$14 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $279 +$108 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $162 +$56 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $840 +$95 +11%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $87 −$3 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $226 −$112 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 11 $42 −$7 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $975 +$95 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $32 +$4 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $528 +$44 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $122 +$25 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $74 −$18 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $140 −$74 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $229 −$76 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $970 +$106 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $186 −$77 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $628 −$125 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $186 +$21 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $123 +$12 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $224 +$30 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $9 −$5 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $88 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $292 +$18 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $163 −$66 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $180 −$70 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $142 −$27 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $383 −$18 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $252 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $32 −$6 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $1,412 −$281 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $494 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $13 19m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $43 19m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $57 20m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 30m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $96 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $26 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $48 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 4h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 4h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records