Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:45:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F6
0xf6e1…1b5d
weather · 187 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$19 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses78 / 99
Open positions10
Markets (closed)177 / 187
History coverage80d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 10 History 177 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days−$5
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Yes 54¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Yes 45¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 7? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 16? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 29? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 26? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 14? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 25? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 4? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 22? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 16? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 22? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 27? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +169%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$3 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$4 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 3? Jun 04 $2 +$2 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 4? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 03 $5 −$4 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 +$2 +81%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 +$2 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 31? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 30? May 31 $1 +$1 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 30? May 30 $1 +$1 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 29? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 27? May 28 $2 +$2 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 27? May 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? May 27 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 26? May 27 $2 +$2 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 26? May 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $2 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 25? May 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 85% −$11
crypto 8% −$3
other 4% +$3
politics 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 11h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 18h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 37h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 37h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 37h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 45h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 45h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 8? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +1.3% -8.4% 44% 44% -7.4%
≤30d 70 -1.3% -10.7% 49% 49% -15.1%
≤90d 177 -4.8% -13.9% 44% 44% -13.4%
all 177 -4.8% -13.9% 44% 44% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 44% -13.4%
10% -22.1% 42% -21.7%
15% -29.7% 41% -29.3%
20% -36.5% 36% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.24 · official $19.24 (match) · 345 history records