Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:07:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6e0…1e92 crypto 464 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$391 (+3%) realized +$391 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate96%444W / 20L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$14
14 days−$10
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$20
other 13% +$14
sports 8% +$344
finance 6% +$10
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +0.3% -9.2% 98% 2% -10.4%
≤30d 198 -0.6% -10.1% 97% 1% -10.0%
≤90d 445 -2.4% -11.7% 96% 0% -17.5%
all 464 +0.6% -9.0% 96% 4% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 4% -6.4%
10% -17.7% 3% -15.3%
15% -25.6% 3% -23.5%
20% -32.9% 3% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$48 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$391
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses444 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)464 / 464
History coverage235d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 464 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $12 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $30 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $30 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET Jun 20 $44 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 19 $49 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $49 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $49 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 1h
BNB Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 96¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 95¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 90¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $48 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 13h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $44 28h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 32h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 44h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 45h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $29 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 2d
Solana Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.84 · official $85.37 (match) · 2066 history records