Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:13:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6e0…e28f world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$624 (-7%) realized −$625 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate70%31W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$296
14 days−$296
30 days−$472
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$120
politics 22% +$42
other 19% −$54
crypto 13% −$492
sports 10% −$10
economics 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -33.8% -40.1% 33% 33% -58.7%
≤30d 7 -43.3% -48.7% 29% 29% -68.8%
≤90d 11 -38.4% -44.3% 27% 18% -60.4%
all 44 -12.0% -20.3% 70% 9% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 9% -15.8%
10% -28.0% 7% -23.8%
15% -34.9% 7% -31.2%
20% -41.3% 5% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$101 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$625
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses31 / 13
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage602d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 55¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $45 +$42 +93%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $80 −$51 -63%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $68 +$27 +40%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 20 $296 −$260 -88%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 20 $20 −$17 -84%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June? Jun 03 $186 −$176 -94%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 15 $462 −$462 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 13 $52 −$8 -16%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 11 $456 −$39 -9%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Apr 28 $51 +$3 +6%
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026? Mar 10 $24 $0 +1%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $146 −$146 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $176 +$475 +269%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Jan 14 $258 −$81 -32%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Jan 08 $255 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 03 $222 +$33 +15%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Dec 23 $220 +$2 +1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31? Dec 06 $433 +$5 +1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Nov 19 $213 +$2 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 12 $213 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Nov 02 $420 +$3 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Aug 04 $405 +$9 +2%
Will Solana reach $180 in June? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 13 $393 +$8 +2%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 21 $194 +$2 +1%
US-China trade deal before June? May 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31? May 12 $173 +$13 +8%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 08 $210 +$1 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 30 $209 +$1 +1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Apr 23 $339 +$5 +1%
Will Payton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 17 $170 +$3 +2%
Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Vietnam before June? Apr 09 $167 +$4 +2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 02 $328 +$1 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 19 $320 +$2 +1%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring? Feb 26 $131 +$4 +3%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Feb 21 $303 +$8 +3%
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary? Feb 09 $149 +$1 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? Feb 04 $146 +$3 +2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 20 $290 +$1 +0%
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024? Nov 17 $541 +$13 +2%
Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first? Oct 31 $125 +$6 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $86 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $45 14h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 22¢ $29 14h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $80 19h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $68 29h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 41¢ $38 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL Yes $36 3d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $3 3d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $4 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $4 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $11 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $1 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $0 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 29¢ $296 20d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June? BUY No 14¢ $12 21d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June? BUY No 17¢ $162 21d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June? BUY No 15¢ $13 21d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $3 40d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $7 40d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $1 40d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $1 40d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $21 40d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $7 40d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $1 40d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $1 40d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $3 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? SELL Yes 52¢ $44 42d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $418 44d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 37¢ $417 44d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY Yes 60¢ $52 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.93 · official $85.93 (match) · 250 history records