Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:19:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F6 0xf6dc…1da1 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 601d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL −$262 (-15%) realized −$274 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%19W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days+$178
14 days+$374
30 days+$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$382
politics 14% −$205
crypto 5% +$19
world 2% +$1
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 42% +20.1%
≤30d 39 +48.2% +34.1% 44% 41% +33.8%
≤90d 39 +48.2% +34.1% 44% 41% +33.8%
all 46 +34.8% +22.0% 41% 39% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.0% 39% +5.1%
10% +10.3% 39% -5.0%
15% -0.3% 35% -14.1%
20% -10.1% 28% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$23 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$274
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses19 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 55
History coverage601d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $12 +$12 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $157 +$40 +25%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $150 +$16 +10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $119 +$104 +87%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $18 +$16 +87%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $43 +$15 +34%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -69%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -69%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 −$6 -32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $74 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $76 −$3 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 Jun 15 $10 +$53 +513%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$19 +61%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$35 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$39 +129%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +41%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$18 +558%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $50 +$40 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 12PM ET Jan 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? Dec 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will there be a US Government shutdown? Dec 22 $4 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? Dec 21 $3 +$1 +54%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Dec 18 $206 −$163 -79%
Kamala Harris wins a solid red state? Dec 18 $42 −$42 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? Dec 18 $2 +$1 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 84¢ $197 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $107 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 44¢ $10 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $150 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 36¢ $20 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $223 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $55 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $64 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 26¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 SELL 90¢ $34 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 BUY 47¢ $18 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 86¢ $58 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $43 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 5¢ $56 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 22¢ $121 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 9¢ $31 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $16 6d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 6d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $74 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $74 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $61 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 SELL 96¢ $63 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.22 · official $12.22 (match) · 122 history records