Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6d9…1831 sports 920 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$47 (+2%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate64%576W / 328L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day25.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$13
14 days+$19
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$25
weather 29% −$38
world 12% +$50
other 8% +$22
politics 2% +$5
finance 1% +$1
tech 1% −$4
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +3.1% -6.7% 39% 33% +0.2%
≤30d 304 -0.8% -10.3% 48% 34% -6.6%
≤90d 904 -1.7% -11.0% 64% 31% -9.1%
all 904 -1.7% -11.0% 64% 31% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 31% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 23% -17.8%
15% -27.3% 19% -25.7%
20% -34.5% 16% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses576 / 328
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions16
Markets (closed)904 / 920
History coverage78d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 904 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 91¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? No 61¢ 62¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? No 88¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 83¢ 83¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Hurupay FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 97¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 58¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $45 −$2 -4%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $4 −$1 -22%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$1 -98%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $2 +$1 +86%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +317%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $4 +$21 +525%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$1 -41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$21 +528%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +67%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -28%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$1 +76%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$2 +53%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 11 $4 $0 -3%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 +4%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $2 $0 -24%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3 $0 -7%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $3 $0 +3%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $3 −$2 -57%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$2 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 34m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 52¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 51¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 50¢ $40 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $34.01 (match) · 2658 history records