Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6d8…fd15 sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-15%) realized −$51 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$90
sports 48% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +16.6% +5.5% 75% 62% -31.4%
≤30d 8 +16.6% +5.5% 75% 62% -31.4%
≤90d 8 +16.6% +5.5% 75% 62% -31.4%
all 8 +16.6% +5.5% 75% 62% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.5% 62% -31.4%
10% -4.6% 62% -38.0%
15% -13.8% 50% -44.0%
20% -22.2% 50% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$72 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)8 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Dplus KIA Challengers 68¢ 51¢ $57 $43 −$14 (-24%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Under 89¢ 100¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jordan 76¢ 99¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+31%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Under 69¢ 88¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+28%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 64¢ 18¢ $13 $4 −$9 (-72%)
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $30 +$27 +90%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$17 +86%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$27 +67%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $144 −$144 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $20 10m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $30 17m
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ $27 36m
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 76¢ $25 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $11 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $2 1h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 68¢ $31 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $7 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $10 4h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $144 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.91 · official $138.91 (match) · 24 history records