Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:48:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6d5…3aec other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$515per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$5
politics 26% −$7
world 20% −$3
crypto 9% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$844) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage95d
Avg bet$515
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 23 $1,285 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Jun 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 23 $1,279 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,189 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $64 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? Jun 22 $1,292 −$1 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Jun 22 $1,292 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? May 13 $23 $0 -1%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of May 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 11 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Fi May 11 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general el May 10 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $844 −$3 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $837 −$1 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 06 $827 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 20? Mar 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $158 $0 -0%
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Maya Joint win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Mar 20 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $1,283 57m
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca SELL No 100¢ $58 1h
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $1,236 1h
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $23 1h
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $143 1h
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $32 2h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $862 2h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $326 2h
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $16 2h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,189 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,291 23h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 23h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,254 23h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 23h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $12 24h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? SELL No 100¢ $979 24h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? SELL No 100¢ $293 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $26 25h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,274 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $23 41d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $32 41d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $12 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 41d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of SELL No 100¢ $13 41d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of SELL No 100¢ $12 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records