Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6d3…a610 crypto 35 markets active 23h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$288 (-12%) realized −$287 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate94%32W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$2
crypto 39% −$286
other 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 32 -2.8% -12.0% 97% 0% -36.0%
≤90d 33 -1.9% -11.3% 97% 3% -35.9%
all 34 -1.9% -11.2% 94% 3% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 3% -19.9%
10% -19.7% 3% -27.6%
15% -27.5% 0% -34.6%
20% -34.6% 0% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$145 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$287
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses32 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage137d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 2? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 1? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.40 on May 29? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 29? Jun 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 29 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 29 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 27? May 28 $11 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 27? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 26? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 25 $288 −$288 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 22? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 22? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Bucks vs. Celtics Apr 03 $2 $0 +25%
Will Mike Waltz be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Jan 30 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $11 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $31 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $31 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $31 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $12 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 11d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $12 13d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $11 13d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $31 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $13 14d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 99¢ $11 15d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $31 15d
Will XRP reach $1.40 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $13 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $34 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $34 19d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 27? BUY No 96¢ $11 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $32 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $15 21d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $32 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.93 · official $1.93 (match) · 70 history records