Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6d3…631e crypto 729 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$89 (-1%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%712W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$7
14 days+$11
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$38
other 11% −$63
finance 7% +$20
tech 1% +$4
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 317 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 729 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 0% -9.5%
all 729 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$19 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses712 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)729 / 729
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 729 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $17 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $49 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $33 +$2 +5%
BNB Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $48 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $12 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $8 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $18 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $12 37h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $18 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 96¢ $33 42h
BNB Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 96¢ $48 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $30 42h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $49 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $17 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $17 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.99 · official $18.00 (match) · 3500 history records