Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:04:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6d2…86e7 crypto 422 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (132 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18,137 (-74%) realized −$18,141 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%211W / 210L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day132.2pace
Fees−$227est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$340
crypto 27% −$650
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (132 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -17.4% -25.3% 57% 55% -17.0%
≤30d 421 -10.5% -19.1% 50% 47% -10.7%
≤90d 421 -10.5% -19.1% 50% 47% -10.7%
all 421 -10.5% -19.1% 50% 47% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover132.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 47% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 38% -19.3%
15% -33.9% 29% -27.1%
20% -40.4% 16% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$30 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized−$18,141
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses211 / 210
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$227
Open positions1
Markets (closed)421 / 422
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$58
Trades / day132.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 421 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Mandatory 54¢ 55¢ $239 $243 +$4 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $729 +$96 +13%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $281 +$106 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $478 −$478 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $462 −$462 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $198 −$198 -100%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $899 +$289 +32%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 16 $619 +$256 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $89 +$71 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $162 +$77 +48%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5) Jun 14 $43 +$24 +56%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $83 +$43 +52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $81 −$81 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $90 +$43 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $82 −$82 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $92 +$59 +64%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $85 +$55 +64%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $91 +$37 +41%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $89 −$89 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $86 +$34 +40%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $65 −$65 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $187 +$62 +33%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $83 +$23 +27%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $90 −$90 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $105 +$43 +41%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $87 +$28 +32%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $91 −$91 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $178 +$136 +76%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $93 +$44 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $247 −$247 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $252 +$198 +79%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$1 +40%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $113 +$47 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $86 +$29 +34%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $84 +$55 +66%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $79 +$36 +46%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $250 −$250 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $166 −$166 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $79 −$79 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $326 +$170 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $413 +$626 +152%
Valorant: Oasis Gaming vs BOOM Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $700 −$48 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $269 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $460 3h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY AlQadsiah Esports 46¢ $4 4h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY AlQadsiah Esports 47¢ $76 4h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY AlQadsiah Esports 50¢ $68 4h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 56¢ $6 4h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 56¢ $121 4h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 55¢ $22 4h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 52¢ $26 4h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 50¢ $4 4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $387 4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 72¢ $281 9h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 51¢ $3 9h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 53¢ $49 10h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 52¢ $1 10h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 56¢ $48 11h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 56¢ $38 11h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 53¢ $24 11h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 46¢ $24 12h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 49¢ $37 12h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 51¢ $3 12h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY AlQadsiah Esports 54¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 26¢ $478 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $462 29h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $198 36h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 50¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 50¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 44¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 52¢ $24 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.22 · official $243.22 (match) · 3500 history records