Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6d1…33b8 politics 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 564d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$203 (+6%) realized +$164 · open +$39
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% +$759
world 28% −$571
other 4% −$8
sports 2% +$4
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 34 -21.7% -29.2% 50% 24% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 24% -5.7%
10% -35.9% 15% -14.7%
15% -42.1% 15% -22.9%
20% -47.8% 12% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$56 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

564d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$164
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage564d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 20¢ 51¢ $25 $64 +$39 (+156%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $90 −$90 -100%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 14 $10 −$10 -100%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? Aug 11 $336 −$336 -100%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31? Aug 10 $100 +$90 +90%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? Jul 18 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Anca Dragu? Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan? Jun 18 $500 +$57 +11%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $134 −$5 -4%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $341 +$540 +158%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 13 $260 +$154 +59%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 06 $50 $0 +1%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 15 $10 −$2 -25%
Will Trump announce tariffs on Mexico on April 2? Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump announce tariffs on Canada on April 2? Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Apr 04 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Trump announce tariffs on China on April 2? Apr 03 $10 +$1 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Apr 02 $50 +$11 +22%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Apr 02 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Facebook implement "community notes" before April? Apr 01 $50 +$2 +3%
Rockets vs. Jazz Mar 31 $50 +$2 +4%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Mar 25 $100 +$9 +9%
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 23 $10 $0 +2%
Montana vs. Wisconsin Mar 20 $10 +$1 +5%
High Point vs. Purdue Mar 20 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 19 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Anton Pisaroglu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 14 $25 −$4 -16%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 12 $50 +$21 +42%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Mar 11 $199 +$198 +99%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 08 $100 +$3 +3%
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Feb 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 27¢ $97 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 20¢ $103 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 95d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes $15 113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No $90 113d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 311d
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? BUY Yes 27¢ $336 314d
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 325d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? SELL No 84¢ $99 339d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Anca Dragu? BUY Yes 25¢ $200 367d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? BUY No 85¢ $100 368d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan? SELL Yes 95¢ $53 369d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan? SELL Yes 95¢ $504 369d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan? BUY Yes 86¢ $500 384d
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes 41¢ $100 403d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? SELL Yes 62¢ $9 404d
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes 38¢ $200 404d
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 405d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? SELL Yes 69¢ $108 411d
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? SELL Yes 96¢ $50 412d
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 416d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? SELL Yes 31¢ $53 416d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes 31¢ $50 417d
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? SELL Yes 40¢ $129 423d
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 433d
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes 27¢ $68 433d
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes 23¢ $16 433d
Will Trump announce tariffs on Canada on April 2? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 445d
Will Trump announce tariffs on Mexico on April 2? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 445d
Will Trump announce tariffs on Mexico on April 2? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 445d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.94 · official $63.94 (match) · 81 history records