Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6d0…3c67 weather 874 markets active 3h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$100 (+0%) realized +$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate87%764W / 115L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$966now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$77
14 days−$64
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$190
sports 1% +$11
crypto 0% +$1
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -15.2% -23.3% 83% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 280 -5.6% -14.6% 93% 1% -9.6%
≤90d 730 -3.1% -12.3% 93% 5% -9.8%
all 879 -3.4% -12.6% 87% 11% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 11% -9.8%
10% -21.0% 9% -18.4%
15% -28.6% 7% -26.3%
20% -35.6% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$966
Realized+$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses764 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)879 / 874
History coverage193d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 879 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $327 $327 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $240 $240 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 2? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 2? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 73°F or below on June 2? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 92°F or higher on June 2? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 2? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 2? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 2? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 2? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 2? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on June 2? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $199 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $725 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $600 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $186 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 16 $175 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $450 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 14? Jun 15 $240 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $597 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $323 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $699 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $716 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $180 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $599 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $706 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $250 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $27 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $300 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $40 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $200 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $300 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $100 6h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 7h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $179 7h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $30 7h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $90 7h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $199 8h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 27h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $120 27h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 27h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 27h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $28 27h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $27 27h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $179 27h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $200 34h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $400 34h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $175 34h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $186 34h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $101 43h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $25 43h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 43h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $16 43h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $0 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $966.33 · official $966.62 (match) · 2670 history records