Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf6d0…2df2 other 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+0%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%15W / 55L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$14
other 14% +$9
politics 14% −$9
sports 1% +$43
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% $0
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -13.2%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 6% 0% -11.5%
≤90d 56 +2.0% -7.7% 21% 16% -8.5%
all 70 +1.4% -8.2% 21% 13% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 13% -9.4%
10% -17.0% 13% -18.0%
15% -25.0% 11% -26.0%
20% -32.4% 11% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×5.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses15 / 55
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage600d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $159 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $179 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $84 $0 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $17 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $19 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 13 $134 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $144 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $135 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $141 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $142 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $140 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $142 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $147 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $149 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $281 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $140 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $149 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 23 $139 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $146 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $137 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $145 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $138 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $139 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $138 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 14 $138 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $147 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $140 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 +$5 +72%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 +$16 +165%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $7 +$5 +70%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Utah vs. Kraken Apr 06 $17 +$12 +75%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 02 $18 −$18 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $48 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 16m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 24h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 25h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $16 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $20 11d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $20 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 15d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 16d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 16d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 17d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 17d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 18d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $25 21d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 23d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 23d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 24d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 24d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.53 · official $76.53 (match) · 293 history records