Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:40:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F6 0xf6d0…4981 crypto 126 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$101 (+4%) realized +$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate87%109W / 17L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day53.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 +2.9% -6.9% 87% 34% -7.0%
≤30d 126 +2.9% -6.9% 87% 34% -7.0%
≤90d 126 +2.9% -6.9% 87% 34% -7.0%
all 126 +2.9% -6.9% 87% 34% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 34% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 12% -15.9%
15% -24.0% 8% -24.0%
20% -31.4% 2% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses109 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)126 / 126
History coverage3d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day53.5
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 126 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$11 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$3 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$16 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$16 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$17 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$19 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$6 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$16 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$11 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $27 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $27 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $27 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $27 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $29 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $29 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $28 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $28 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $31 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 276 history records