Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:40:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6cf…a305 crypto 52 markets active 12d ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,423 (-41%) realized −$3,423 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate25%13W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1,379
30 days−$1,585
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 74% −$6,103
world 20% +$2,783
crypto 4% −$98
other 2% −$4
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 8 +162.5% +137.5% 12% 12% -49.5%
all 52 -0.9% -10.4% 25% 19% -50.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 19% -50.2%
10% -19.0% 19% -55.0%
15% -26.8% 17% -59.3%
20% -34.0% 15% -63.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$333 vs −$199 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,423
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage456d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1,448 −$1,379 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 15 $216 −$206 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 28 $3,869 −$3,866 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $1,496 −$1,496 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 09 $339 −$339 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $199 +$4,279 +2148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 24 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 24 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 24 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 24 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 24 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$8 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 24 $14 +$15 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 24 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 24 $20 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 24 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 24 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 24 $25 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 23-29? Mar 24 $5 −$2 -34%
Will Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $4 $0 -4%
Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $4 $0 +3%
Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $10 −$1 -9%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Mar 18 $20 −$1 -4%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Mar 18 $10 $0 -4%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $34 +$1 +2%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Mar 18 $17 +$1 +9%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Mar 18 $239 −$239 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Mar 17 $48 −$1 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in priso Mar 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in priso Mar 17 $9 −$4 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $147 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $3 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $198 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $100 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $215 22d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $4 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $296 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $2 27d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $180 32d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $210 32d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $307 33d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $49 61d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $499 68d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $997 69d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 4¢ $627 80d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 2¢ $2,492 80d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $700 80d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes 0¢ $339 80d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 99¢ $4,478 82d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 4¢ $199 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 240 history records