Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:26:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F6 0xf6cb…3f69 other 586 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 195d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,830 (+5%) realized +$6,881 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate71%405W / 162L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$6,587now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$3,624
14 days+$4,403
30 days+$5,064
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$1,694
world 28% +$4,982
politics 5% +$164
crypto 4% +$158
culture 1% +$45
tech 0% −$13
finance 0% −$17
sports 0% −$95
economics 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +28.1% +15.9% 76% 40% +16.4%
≤30d 115 +11.5% +0.9% 82% 23% +2.2%
≤90d 320 +4.6% -5.4% 80% 21% -5.7%
all 567 +5.2% -4.8% 71% 27% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 27% -4.5%
10% -13.9% 17% -13.6%
15% -22.2% 13% -21.9%
20% -29.8% 10% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$55 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$6,587
Realized+$6,881
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses405 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)567 / 586
History coverage196d ⚠
Avg bet$229
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 567 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $2,000 $2,260 +$260 (+13%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 50¢ 44¢ $2,000 $1,740 −$260 (-13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 73¢ 92¢ $872 $1,110 +$238 (+27%)
Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $366 $456 +$90 (+25%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 85¢ 91¢ $300 $319 +$19 (+6%)
Aligned FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 78¢ 73¢ $235 $219 −$16 (-7%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $209 $169 −$40 (-19%)
Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch? Yes 33¢ 27¢ $82 $67 −$15 (-18%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 58¢ 62¢ $58 $62 +$4 (+6%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $74 $55 −$19 (-25%)
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 98¢ 95¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $51 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 55¢ 64¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+15%)
Aligned FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 95¢ 68¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-28%)
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 33¢ $19 $10 −$9 (-48%)
Will Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 27¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 52¢ 29¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 20 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 20 $40 +$2 +5%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $60 −$7 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 20 $938 +$56 +6%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $501 +$23 +5%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $21 −$5 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $3,489 +$232 +7%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $150 +$9 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 15 $281 −$9 -3%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 15 $317 +$27 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $102 +$285 +280%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1,747 +$1,717 +98%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $200 +$4 +2%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 14 $8 −$3 -40%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $348 +$246 +71%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $10 +$19 +178%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $613 +$465 +76%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $423 +$135 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,098 +$92 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $1,231 +$244 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $264 +$54 +21%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $45 +$19 +42%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $238 −$3 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $400 +$18 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 13 $317 +$18 +6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $93 +$7 +8%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $126 +$16 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $958 +$82 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $1,943 +$179 +9%
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Hadjar? Jun 08 $40 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 07 $144 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hulkenberg finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $326 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $400 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 07 $457 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 07 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 07 $411 +$32 +8%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 07 $27 −$27 -100%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 07 $146 −$146 -100%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 07 $360 +$15 +4%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $115 +$595 +520%
YOM FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 07 $44 +$1 +3%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 Jun 06 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Sergio Perez achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 F1 Jun 06 $156 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 33¢ $114 1h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $42 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 58¢ $53 1h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 29¢ $100 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 65¢ $60 1h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $40 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 86¢ $200 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 29¢ $410 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $112 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $66 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $47 30h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 58¢ $58 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $105 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $315 46h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $16 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $57 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $34 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 4d
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 81¢ $273 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 70¢ $50 4d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 55¢ $10 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $434 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $355 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $343 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $343 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $431 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $289 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,587.36 · official $6,587.76 (match) · 3500 history records