Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:34:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6cb…2998 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$9
other 20% $0
politics 16% −$1
sports 11% $0
culture 10% $0
crypto 10% +$1
finance 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 11 -3.6% -12.8% 27% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 14 -2.8% -12.1% 29% 0% -11.4%
all 48 -0.9% -10.3% 31% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage285d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $19 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $26 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $26 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $87 −$5 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $64 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $31 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $16 −$6 -36%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $6 $0 +4%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $27 $0 -1%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 23 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during address to UN General Asse Sep 23 $30 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 22 $7 $0 -5%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Sep 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 21 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Sep 19 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $65 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 14 $32 $0 +1%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Sep 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $32 $0 +0%
2025 August second hottest on record? Sep 09 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $18 13h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $1 13h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $19 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $18 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $26 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $17 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $9 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $3 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $24 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $26 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $17 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $30 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $32 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $10 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $21 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $31 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $28 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $29 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.24 · official $26.24 (match) · 181 history records