Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:18:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F6 0xf6c9…a153 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$36 · open −$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown2%max

Avg bet$113per market

Trades / day11.0pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$762now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-0.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+10.2%	-0.3%	50%	50%	+21.2%
≤30d	2	+10.2%	-0.3%	50%	50%	+21.2%
≤90d	2	+10.2%	-0.3%	50%	50%	+21.2%
all	2	+10.2%	-0.3%	50%	50%	+21.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-0.3%	50%	+21.2%
10%	-9.9%	50%	+9.6%
15%	-18.6%	50%	-1.0%
20%	-26.6%	0%	-10.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +34% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +10% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$37 vs −$1 · ×59.1 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×59.1 per $1 lost it wins $59.1

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$762

Realized+$36

Unrealized−$14

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions6

Markets (closed)2 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$113

Trades / day11.0

Drawdown2%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$290	$284	−$6 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$98	$99	+$1 (+1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	21¢	21¢	$97	$97	+$0 (+0%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Over	46¢	46¢	$97	$96	−$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$97	$95	−$2 (-2%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$96	$90	−$6 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET	Jun 20	$4	−$1	-16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET	Jun 20	$102	+$37	+36%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$139	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$2	1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	21¢	$100	1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	24¢	$300	1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	8¢	$100	1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$100	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$100	1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$100	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$100	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$2	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $761.93 · official $761.93 (match) · 12 history records