Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf6c9…1c13 world 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,548 (+4%) realized +$2,562 · open −$1,014
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate65%31W / 17L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$671per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$3,703now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$189
7 days+$189
14 days+$680
30 days+$752
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$407
finance 33% +$1,493
other 14% −$365
politics 4% −$38
tech 3% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +10.0% -0.4% 100% 0% -0.4%
≤30d 14 +11.8% +1.2% 71% 50% -2.8%
≤90d 40 +3.5% -6.4% 68% 38% -3.2%
all 48 +3.2% -6.6% 65% 38% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 38% -3.1%
10% -15.5% 23% -12.4%
15% -23.7% 15% -20.8%
20% -31.2% 10% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$1,011) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$184 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$3,703
Realized+$2,562
Unrealized−$1,014
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses31 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)48 / 59
History coverage121d
Avg bet$671
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Jun 29 $1,882 +$189 +10%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 19 $418 +$3 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 19 $628 −$628 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 19 $1,011 −$1,011 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $126 +$244 +193%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 19 $401 +$126 +32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $3,639 +$1,097 +30%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $188 +$56 +30%
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Jun 17 $486 +$652 +134%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $340 +$40 +12%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by June 5? Jun 10 $322 +$17 +5%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 10 $154 +$35 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 09 $536 −$20 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? May 30 $886 −$44 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 26 $1,047 −$162 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $1,570 +$292 +19%
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? May 19 $1,000 +$7 +1%
Will the Long Island Rail Road strike end by May 22, 2026? May 19 $55 +$3 +5%
Will the Long Island Rail Road strike end by May 20, 2026? May 19 $38 +$3 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 18 $1,370 +$4 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $729 +$604 +83%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 07 $480 −$88 -18%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2026? May 07 $95 +$10 +11%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1? May 06 $2,446 +$1,102 +45%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by May 1? May 06 $1,890 +$91 +5%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1? May 06 $2,171 +$259 +12%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by May 1? May 06 $4,195 +$135 +3%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 400M by June 5? May 02 $80 +$2 +2%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 01 $28 +$14 +50%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $194 −$155 -80%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 28 $600 −$219 -36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $115 −$42 -36%
Will Meghan Frank be the next CEO of Lululemon? Apr 25 $5 $0 +6%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? Apr 12 $410 −$166 -40%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $720 −$298 -41%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 05 $1,054 +$109 +10%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T? Apr 03 $120 +$17 +14%
Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility? Apr 02 $267 +$195 +73%
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? Apr 02 $176 −$176 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 31 $2,294 +$249 +11%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $248 −$41 -16%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? Mar 26 $62 +$2 +4%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Mar 26 $56 +$8 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Mar 22 $46 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 19 $53 −$18 -33%
Khamenei seen in public by March 1? Mar 02 $93 +$37 +40%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $93 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $666 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $12 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $139 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $17 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $186 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $171 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $194 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $14 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $42 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $308 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $693 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $316 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $88 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $156 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $479 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $17 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $4 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $37 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $79 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $330 3d
Will Trump announce Kyle Diamantas as the next FDA commissioner by Dec BUY No 72¢ $189 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $7 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 80¢ $3 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 80¢ $34 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 80¢ $80 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 80¢ $253 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $495 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $370 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $9 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,703.18 · official $3,703.18 (match) · 380 history records