Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F6 0xf6bf…05b6 sports 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$767 (-11%) realized −$773 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%26W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$142est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$242
14 days−$337
30 days−$487
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$976
crypto 7% −$69
other 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -43.7% -49.1% 20% 20% -29.4%
≤30d 43 -34.8% -41.0% 23% 23% -26.8%
≤90d 102 -28.8% -35.6% 25% 25% -24.8%
all 102 -28.8% -35.6% 25% 25% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.6% 25% -24.8%
10% -41.7% 25% -32.0%
15% -47.4% 25% -38.6%
20% -52.5% 25% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$58 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$773
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses26 / 76
Est. fees paid−$142
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage61d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage SaD Esports 30¢ 36¢ $34 $41 +$7 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $95 −$51 -53%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $94 +$155 +165%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $86 −$84 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $19 −$19 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $100 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $127 −$47 -37%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $66 −$65 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $101 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $77 +$150 +196%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $77 −$63 -83%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $150 +$178 +119%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $73 −$72 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $97 +$213 +220%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $94 +$120 +128%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $26 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $57 −$55 -98%
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Diana Shnaider: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $10 +$23 +222%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $26 −$25 -97%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $95 −$93 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lavked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 24 $45 −$44 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $66 +$191 +287%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG - Map 4 Winner May 24 $60 +$65 +107%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG - Map 3 Winner May 23 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner May 23 $38 +$53 +137%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $52 −$51 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $67 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Grou May 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $67 +$102 +152%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner May 19 $50 +$70 +139%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 16 $72 −$71 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $62 +$122 +197%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $62 −$61 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 - Map 1 Winner May 11 $27 +$35 +126%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 56m
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY SaD Esports 30¢ $35 59m
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Over 22¢ $45 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $95 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $249 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 37¢ $94 6h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 31¢ $86 32h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 27¢ $19 6d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 21¢ $41 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 22¢ $100 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 29¢ $48 6d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $102 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 45¢ $150 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 23¢ $80 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 30¢ $66 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 39¢ $101 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 99¢ $227 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner SELL B8 6¢ $13 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 33¢ $77 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 33¢ $77 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 99¢ $166 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 37¢ $63 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL B8 64¢ $162 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 33¢ $86 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $73 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 31¢ $38 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.48 · official $139.48 (match) · 163 history records