Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6be…f6a3 sports 889 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (161 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17,039 (+43%) realized +$17,346 · open −$307
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%346W / 517L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day161.3pace
Fees−$215est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,092now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$1,084
sports 34% −$188
weather 11% +$206
other 5% −$204
world 0% +$65
politics 0% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (161 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 303 +3.7% -6.2% 41% 41% -10.6%
≤30d 863 -0.4% -9.8% 40% 40% -11.9%
≤90d 863 -0.4% -9.8% 40% 40% -11.9%
all 863 -0.4% -9.8% 40% 40% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover161.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 40% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 39% -20.3%
15% -26.4% 39% -28.0%
20% -33.6% 38% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$42 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1,092
Realized+$17,346
Unrealized−$307
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses346 / 517
Est. fees paid−$215
Open positions33
Markets (closed)863 / 889
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day161.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 863 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Yes 28¢ 90¢ $99 $316 +$218 (+220%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 49¢ 81¢ $94 $157 +$62 (+66%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? No 57¢ 100¢ $84 $149 +$64 (+76%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 18? Yes 45¢ 97¢ $32 $69 +$37 (+114%)
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner Pigeons 28¢ 38¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+37%)
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ODDIK Academy 22¢ 50¢ $29 $65 +$36 (+125%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $48 $42 −$7 (-14%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 32¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $49 $30 −$19 (-39%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 26¢ $27 $22 −$5 (-19%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+15%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 41¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 55¢ 50¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-9%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 14¢ $30 $14 −$15 (-52%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $100 $12 −$88 (-88%)
Will any FaZe member come out as a furry by July 31? No 7¢ 94¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+1243%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 18? Yes 36¢ 7¢ $43 $9 −$34 (-79%)
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by June 30? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 30¢ 2¢ $100 $6 −$94 (-94%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Yes 31¢ 3¢ $50 $4 −$46 (-91%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Yes 19¢ 1¢ $49 $2 −$46 (-95%)
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-61%)
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen Alba Berlin 16¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 23¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+334%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $49 +$65 +134%
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $121 −$121 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $49 +$55 +114%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Tulsa: William Manning vs Braden Shick Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
ITF Blois: Jenny Lim vs Sofya Lansere Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 +$136 +984%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$88 +168%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai Jun 17 $50 +$52 +105%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Haskovo: Valeriya Strakhova vs Elena Korokozidi Jun 17 $50 +$54 +109%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $48 +$71 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$220 +218%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ goals Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$17 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $325 −$325 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $14 +$17 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $98 +$78 +79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $97 +$103 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$81 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$27 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $55 +$50 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 7m
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner BUY Pigeons 28¢ $6 13m
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner BUY Pigeons 28¢ $2 13m
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner BUY Pigeons 28¢ $4 14m
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner BUY Pigeons 28¢ $8 14m
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner BUY Pigeons 28¢ $7 14m
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner BUY Pigeons 28¢ $15 15m
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner BUY Pigeons 28¢ $6 15m
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner BUY Pigeons 28¢ $1 18m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $96 27m
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 45¢ $20 28m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $20 42m
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY Alba Berlin 16¢ $14 1h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY Alba Berlin 16¢ $1 1h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY Alba Berlin 16¢ $5 1h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY Alba Berlin 16¢ $5 1h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY Alba Berlin 16¢ $5 1h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY Alba Berlin 16¢ $8 1h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY Alba Berlin 16¢ $1 1h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY Alba Berlin 16¢ $2 1h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY Alba Berlin 16¢ $5 1h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY Alba Berlin 16¢ $4 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $98 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,092.10 · official $1,071.01 · 3500 history records