Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:01:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf6bd…d26f world 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+0%) realized +$43 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%39W / 70L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$10
14 days+$3
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$28
other 25% −$3
politics 15% +$24
sports 15% −$3
economics 7% −$2
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -2.2% -11.6% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 37 +1.0% -8.6% 35% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 48 +0.5% -9.0% 35% 6% -9.3%
all 109 +0.6% -9.0% 36% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 5% -9.3%
10% -17.7% 1% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses39 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage464d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $205 −$2 -1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $195 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $22 −$5 -23%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $58 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $83 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $286 −$3 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $182 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $200 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $48 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $84 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $181 +$1 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $224 −$1 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $288 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $54 +$18 +33%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $163 +$2 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $167 −$4 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $169 −$2 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $51 −$3 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $252 −$9 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $182 +$9 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $394 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $181 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $497 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $188 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $171 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $376 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $111 +$14 +13%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $176 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $646 +$21 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $98 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $3 +$1 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $153 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $23 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $177 −$7 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $175 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $158 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $156 −$13 -8%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $156 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $30 −$2 -6%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $427 +$2 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $1,000 −$2 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $1,097 +$4 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,096 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $979 +$21 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1,080 −$3 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $982 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $981 +$1 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $160 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $15 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $149 9h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $195 35h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $195 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $17 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $22 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $58 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $58 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $83 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $62 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $113 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $104 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $162 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $20 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $182 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $200 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $200 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $28 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $28 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $48 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $48 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $25 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $59 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $84 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.75 · official $30.75 (match) · 412 history records