Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:02:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6bc…c13a crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-9%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -4.5% -13.6% 69% 50% -17.0%
≤30d 16 -4.5% -13.6% 69% 50% -17.0%
≤90d 16 -4.5% -13.6% 69% 50% -17.0%
all 16 -4.5% -13.6% 69% 50% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 50% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 31% -24.9%
15% -29.4% 25% -32.2%
20% -36.3% 6% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records