Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:19:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F6 0xf6ba…7aae crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 366d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$256 (+3%) realized +$246 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$236
14 days+$236
30 days+$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 75% +$5
economics 12% −$1
other 9% +$231
sports 2% +$17
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +41.8% +28.3% 33% 33% -5.6%
≤30d 10 +41.8% +28.3% 40% 40% -5.5%
≤90d 14 +29.9% +17.5% 50% 29% -5.5%
all 38 +11.0% +0.4% 42% 11% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 11% -6.9%
10% -9.2% 11% -15.8%
15% -18.0% 11% -23.9%
20% -26.0% 5% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$0 · ×38.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×35.86 per $1 lost it wins $35.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

366d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$246
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage366d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? No 38¢ 42¢ $105 $115 +$10 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 22 $985 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,018 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1,095 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $147 +$198 +134%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 17 $755 $0 +0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Jun 17 $704 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $682 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $17 +$34 +197%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $19 +$9 +46%
Spread: Sabres (-1.5) Jun 03 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 30-April 5? Apr 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? Apr 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 March 16-22? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Feb 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jan 29 $32 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 13? Jan 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on December 26? Jan 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair? Nov 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on November 13? Nov 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Marian Vanghelie be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Nov 13 $332 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Oct 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.08 in July? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jhonny Fernández win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Jun 23 $280 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 23 $300 $0 -0%
Will Holger Rune win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 23 $285 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 21 $320 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 21 $316 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be from another party? Jun 21 $308 $0 -0%
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 21 $312 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? SELL No 100¢ $984 1h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 38¢ $108 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY No 100¢ $985 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,087 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $176 4d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $527 4d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $680 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $147 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $17 10d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 68¢ $19 18d
Spread: Sabres (-1.5) BUY Canadiens 70¢ $20 34d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 52d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 52d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 52d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 30-April 5? BUY No 100¢ $15 80d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 86d
Will Solana dip to $20 March 16-22? BUY No 100¢ $14 97d
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 144d
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 100¢ $32 144d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 144d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 160d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 160d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $17 160d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 160d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on December 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.18 · official $128.18 (match) · 115 history records