Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6b8…236b world 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-0%) realized −$32 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%36W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days+$5
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$2
other 25% $0
politics 18% $0
sports 13% +$2
economics 4% −$5
crypto 2% +$3
finance 2% −$35
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -9.6% -18.2% 75% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 31 -1.5% -10.9% 45% 3% -10.1%
≤90d 73 +6.6% -3.6% 41% 3% -9.8%
all 92 +5.2% -4.9% 39% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 3% -9.8%
10% -14.0% 1% -18.4%
15% -22.3% 1% -26.3%
20% -29.9% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses36 / 56
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage332d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $115 $114 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $19 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $110 +$6 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $22 −$10 -47%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $117 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $115 +$2 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 09 $227 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $353 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $113 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $125 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $124 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $197 +$2 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $110 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $192 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $724 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $135 +$3 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $6 $0 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $112 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 01 $112 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $217 −$35 -16%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $139 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $125 +$5 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $232 −$5 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $112 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $250 −$4 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $62 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $3 $0 +12%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $159 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $158 +$1 +1%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $2 $0 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 19 $302 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $143 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $157 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $144 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $144 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 15 $143 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $143 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $286 +$1 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $580 +$2 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $137 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $289 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $143 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $287 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $299 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $142 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $284 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $115 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $12 26h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $58 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $58 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $110 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $110 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $108 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $8 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $7 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $11 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 17¢ $22 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $118 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $117 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $38 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $79 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 97¢ $115 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $115 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $115 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $115 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $113 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $113 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $113 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $125 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $125 9d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $124 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $124 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $107 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $7 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.04 · official $114.39 (match) · 380 history records