Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:12:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F6 0xf6b8…db17 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+2%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$2
politics 25% $0
other 21% +$17
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.7% -7.1% 56% 11% -9.2%
≤30d 17 +1.7% -8.0% 53% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 17 +1.7% -8.0% 53% 6% -9.5%
all 37 +2.5% -7.3% 46% 5% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 5% -8.0%
10% -16.1% 5% -16.8%
15% -24.2% 3% -24.9%
20% -31.7% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.35 per $1 lost it wins $4.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage281d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $127 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $96 −$2 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $60 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $18 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $96 +$2 +2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $39 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $31 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $31 −$1 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $51 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $1 $0 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 31 $30 +$19 +61%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Nov 04 $25 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? Sep 19 $26 $0 -1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 17 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $7 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $10 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $33 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $51 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $46 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $31 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $16 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $3 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $45 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $5 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $44 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $33 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $33 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $18 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $50 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $52 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.02 · official $1.02 (match) · 139 history records