Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:33:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F6 0xf6b1…387d other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$65 (+49%) realized +$59 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +97% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +72% what you keep after slip
Net edge+72%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$3
crypto 16% +$3
sports 12% +$61
politics 11% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+78.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +97.4% +78.6% 60% 60% +97.4%
≤30d 5 +97.4% +78.6% 60% 60% +97.4%
≤90d 5 +97.4% +78.6% 60% 60% +97.4%
all 5 +97.4% +78.6% 60% 60% +97.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +78.6% 60% +97.4%
10% +61.5% 40% +78.5%
15% +45.9% 20% +61.3%
20% +31.6% 20% +45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +118% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +97% · $-wt +118% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$6 · ×4.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.52 per $1 lost it wins $6.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)5 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? No 78¢ 81¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 78¢ 100¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+27%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? No 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$3 +13%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 +$67 +650%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $10 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 78¢ $30 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 78¢ $15 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 2d
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.91 · official $86.91 (match) · 15 history records