Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F6 0xf6b1…490c crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 515d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate81%42W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$1
politics 11% $0
tech 7% $0
other 7% $0
economics 5% $0
sports 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 52 +0.1% -9.4% 81% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

515d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses42 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage515d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $69 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 in January? Feb 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $21 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? Dec 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $260 in November? Dec 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? Nov 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 04 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Oct 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Sep 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 03 $40 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 03 $1 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 03 $4 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Jaxson Dart be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Apr 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Apr 12 $35 $0 -0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 23 $62 $0 -1%
Will Bournemouth finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Mar 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Sima win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 10 $15 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4000 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 05 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $78 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $69 30d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 60d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $24 63d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $39 63d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $31 93d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $33 93d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 122d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $52 122d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 in January? BUY No 100¢ $7 148d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $16 148d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $53 150d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $21 181d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $53 181d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $26 211d
Will Solana reach $260 in November? BUY No 100¢ $36 211d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? BUY No 100¢ $13 240d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $22 241d
Will Solana reach $270 in October? BUY No 100¢ $37 242d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? BUY No 100¢ $15 271d
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $21 273d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $32 273d
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? BUY No 100¢ $33 302d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $11 332d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $17 332d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $40 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? BUY No 100¢ $18 365d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $16 365d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.84 · official $77.84 (match) · 109 history records