Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:19:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
F6 0xf6b0…b8dc world 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,263 (+9%) realized +$3,126 · open −$863
Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +54% what you keep after slip
Net edge+54%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$1,122per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2,788now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days+$1,544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 94% +$921
finance 4% −$337
politics 1% −$93
other 1% +$106
crypto 0% −$10
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+60.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 11 +154.2% +130.0% 45% 36% -2.7%
≤90d 18 +77.6% +60.7% 44% 28% -3.6%
all 18 +77.6% +60.7% 44% 28% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +60.7% 28% -3.6%
10% +45.3% 22% -12.8%
15% +31.3% 17% -21.2%
20% +18.4% 11% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +78% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +189% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$296 vs −$92 · ×3.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$2,788
Realized+$3,126
Unrealized−$863
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)18 / 23
History coverage52d
Avg bet$1,122
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 55¢ 45¢ $2,895 $2,369 −$526 (-18%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes $351 $205 −$146 (-42%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Yes $195 $136 −$59 (-30%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Yes $49 $61 +$12 (+25%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes $161 $18 −$144 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 01 $142 +$92 +65%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $54 −$14 -25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $8,935 −$626 -7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $13 +$2 +19%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $103 −$103 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $3,680 +$1,630 +44%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $11 +$589 +5364%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $2,640 +$6 +0%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 12 $216 −$92 -43%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 07 $56 +$15 +26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 01 $400 +$30 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 01 $50 +$5 +9%
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Apr 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL Yes $1 0m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes $3 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $5 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes $261 11h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes $52 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $315 11h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes $100 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $101 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $11 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $10 31h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes $100 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $99 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes $103 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $104 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $1 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes $62 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes $97 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $102 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $3,825 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $325 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $529 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $104 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $500 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $40 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,788.07 · official $2,788.07 (match) · 128 history records