Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:24:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6b0…ba8c world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$11
politics 17% $0
other 9% +$2
sports 6% $0
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 -1.9% -11.3% 50% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 16 -1.9% -11.3% 50% 0% -10.5%
all 34 -0.5% -10.0% 44% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage324d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $6 $0 -5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $84 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $58 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $201 −$2 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $59 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $118 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $63 −$2 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $50 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $6 −$1 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $9 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $51 +$2 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $72 −$16 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $66 +$6 +9%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 19 $2 $0 +10%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 20 $10 $0 +1%
Israel strikes Iran before August? Jul 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 31 $9 $0 +1%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jul 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 29 $61 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $7 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 29 $59 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 28 $65 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $63 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 9h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $21 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $46 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $13 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $58 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $5 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $48 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $5 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $43 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $15 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $24 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $35 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $58 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $7 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.49 · official $63.49 (match) · 270 history records